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February, 2019

NOSEBLEED STOCKS VS. FOOLPROOF INVESTING
by LARRY

So named because they have been going to heights that metaphorically might affect our circulatory systems, nosebleed stock prices are figuratively reaching into the stratosphere. Upper elevations, with lower barometric pressure, tend to rupture blood vessels, hence more bleeding from the nasal capillaries.

Attractive as nosebleed stocks can be (as investors pile on, hoping to ride the stock rocket to riches, boosting prices further as rapid rises occur), typically they can plummet earthward even faster once any flaw appears in the space bound trajectory scenario.

Nonetheless, in the short term, rapid growth assets can be lucrative. While the initially highest performing equities in the S&P 500 tend to be losers if held for a year, they can double the average return of that index if rebalanced monthly. So a tactic for the daring is to simply purchase that index's five stocks with the highest recent price advances, hold for about a month, then sell any that are no longer in the top five group, replacing them with new ones that qualify. There will, naturally, have been some that in recent weeks would have reached their zenith and started back down, yet, so the theory goes, on average the winners will offset those that are now on the wane.

I have tweaked the method a bit to come up with a less risky system. The revised candidate screen assets have momentum yet do not race up at speed of light rates. They also are less likely, though, to fall to Earth precipitously. So far, four out of four picks have been nicely profitable. However, this method is as yet experimental. One might attempt it at his or her own risk, preferably with money one can afford to do without.



Step by step, here is the strategy:

1. Invest at a rate of one per week in up to 5 stocks meeting the below screener criteria, in each case buying shares of the one not already owned (if any) then closest in price to its 52-week price high among the screened candidates and which is neither a Chinese company nor possessing less than a net of two positive Commentary remarks by Motley Fool CAPS raters within the past year.



2. Screener criteria

a. 3-month average daily shares volume: 500,000 or above;
b. Motley Fool CAPS rating: 4-5 CAPS;
c. Percent below 52-week high: 10% or less;
d. Motley Fool All-Star outperform picks: 25 or more;
e. Cash per share: $1.00 or more;
f. Current dividend yield: 2.50% or better.
g. (Optional) Invest in such an asset only if it also is recommended by one or more major investment or stock rating services as a good or excellent equity purchase.

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) as of this writing (2/19/19) meets the strategy requirements. In an announcement early on 2/19/19, GPC reported its 63rd consecutive year of increased dividends. GPC at recent prices is also cited as a good asset to purchase by one of the brokerages my wife and I use.

An Appreciating Stock With Modest Buoyancy
CompanyBusinessTicker
Symbol
Recent
Price
Dividend
Yield
Genuine Parts Co.Distributes auto and industrial replacement parts, electronic materials, and office products.GPC$107.592.68%


3. After have 5 stocks, rebalance each week, selling stocks that are no longer among the 5 with prices closest to their 52-week highs and which have been held at least 5 weeks. Replace those sold, however, only if/when the new assets meet all of above requirements. (There may thus be times when no assets are left in the category.)

4. Hopefully repeat indefinitely & pocket profits.

5. If/when have losses after redemptions from a rebalancing, for the next 5 purchases invest the basic amount plus 1/5 the net amount of losses.

If interested, I hope the reader will have fun with this, play around with it to suit his or her own preferences, and maybe make a little money. With luck, it might even be a bit more rewarding than a weekend at the races or a casino.



Caveat: Given that Valerie and I are with this one completing a milestone of having done 275 consecutive monthly newsletters and have decided to quit while we are ahead, so this is our final issue, I have glanced again through the investment essays done since the outset, in 1996, for what appears to be the best risk-adjusted strategy of the entire period, have tweaked it just a bit based on the latest data, and can say now that, for those concerned about wide swings in the market, the following Foolproof Investing System, if I had to recommend just one, is likely to be as rewarding as, and probably less volatile for long-term money management than, either the method described above or simply using exchange traded funds to mimic the equity markets:

-Allocate most of one's initial investment funds to 30% each in Vanguard's Health Care Fund (VGHCX) or exchange traded health care fund (VHT), Vanguard's S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (VIOO), and the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP);

-Allocate an initial 10% cushion of reserves to one of the Vanguard money market funds, for instance, Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX).

For each of the first three of those assets, invest initially, however, only when the mutual fund's or ETF's price is at least 7% below its 52-week high. (Currently that condition is met for VIOO alone among those three, so for the rest dollars would be left in the money market account till their prices also have dropped sufficiently, as they had temporarily done just this past December.) On average such drops typically occur at least annually. Once the indicated allocation is established for all four funds or ETFs, add to one's investments (in roughly the same allocations) with at least 5% of the beginning investment amount per year. (Thus, if investing $10,000 at first, $500 or more would be added within each 12-month period thereafter.) Subject to a minimum transaction threshold, rebalance to restore the intended (initial) allocations annually or when one or more of the equity assets falls or rises by at least 10% relative to its intended allocation level, whichever occurs first. (So, if for example VHT were to reach 33% or more, or fall to 27% or less, of the total portfolio, this would trigger a rebalance, unless it meant movement of funds below a requisite amount, say $500 for instance.) While nothing is certain about the future in investing, historically this approach if maintained for the long-term would have served one very well.



DISCLAIMER

Larry is not a professional. Don't take him seriously!

Actually, the investment article provided here is for general information only and should not be considered as professional advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or the Word of God. Investors are encouraged to do their own research while considering their personal goals and circumstances, or consult their own professional financial advisors, before making investment decisions. Neither Larry nor LARVALBUG will be liable for any losses sustained by any visitor to this site.

(Disclosure statement: Larry and Val have holdings in some of the suggested assets but do not "make a market" in any of them and do not derive any direct benefit from recommending them, except perhaps for a bit of smug self-satisfaction.)



Value Investing / Main Index / previous