The US market dividend now averages only about 1.7%, far below its historical level since 1928 of around 4%. The argument had been that companies can make better use of the dividend than to pay it to shareholders. The reverse turns out usually to have been true. Companies not currently in financial distress that nonetheless pay little or no dividend have often squandered the extra funds on huge pay packages for executives or on expensive empire-building purchases of other companies, though the combinations often add little to shareholders' profits.

The dollar has now fallen about 50% compared with the Euro in just the last three years. Such trends are unsustainable. Bond, stock, and real estate prices are all vulnerable.

The warnings of such eminent investors as John Templeton and Warren Buffett are at least as relevant now as in December, 2003.

The "Value Line Investment Survey" has tended to be optimistic by about 50-60% in its 3-5 year projections for stock appreciation. Recently it has suggested an average 3-5 year share price rise of only about 35%. Subtracting their historical excess expectations, a more reasonable forecast for the average stock might be a 10-20% loss over the next 3-5 years.

(Please note: while the above entire portfolio could well be less volatile than the market as a whole; each individual asset by itself may prove more risky than the major averages.)

(Disclosure statement: Larry and Val have holdings in some of the suggested assets but do not "make a market" in any of them and do not derive any direct benefit from recommending them, except perhaps for a bit of smug self-satisfaction.)